เหตุการณ์ใน-นอกโลก VS ภัยธรรมชาติ และupdate พายุสุริยะ

คาดการณ์การเปลี่ยนแปลงของโลกโดยการสังเกตปฏิกริยาดวงอาทิตย์

วันที่ 19 กรกฎาคม เวลา 5:58 UTC เกิดพายุสุริยะขนาดใหญ่รอบด้าน ซึ่งมีพลังงานบางส่วนเข้ามาที่โลก ซึ่งโลกจะได้รับผลกระทบในครั้งนี้ จากการคำนวณพบว่าพลังงานจะเดินทางมาถึงโลกประมาณวันที่ 20 กรกฎาคม เวลา 8:48 UTC +/- 10 ชั่วโมง พี้นที่เสี่ยงภัยเป็นพิเศษได้แก่ ทวีปเอเซียใต้ ตะวันออกกลาง และ ประเทศทางทะเลแปซิฟิก


วันที่ 18 กรกฎาคม เวลา 7:24 UTC เกิดพายุสริยะขนาดใหญ่มีทิศทางออกไปด้านหลัง และรอบด้าน ซึ่งจากการคำนวณพบว่าพลังงานบางส่วนจะเดินทางมาถึงโลกในวันที่ 21 กรกฏาคม เวลาประมาณ 22 UTC +/- 10 ชั่วโมง

วันที่ 17 กรกฏาคม เวลา 15:54 UTC เกิดพายุสุริยะขนาดใหญ่ ซึ่งทิศทางไม่ตรงโลกแต่จะมีพลังงานบางส่วนมาที่โลก และมีการขยายตัวของจุดดับ ซึ่งโลกจะได้รับผลกระทบทางอ้อมประมาณวันที่ 20-21 กรกฏาคม และมีความเสี่ยงต่อแผ่นดินไหวเป็นพิเศษ นอกเหนือจากสภาพอากาศที่เปลี่ยนแปลง จากการคำนวณพบว่าพลังงานจะเดินทางมาถึงโลกประมาณวันที่ 20 กรกฎาคม เวลา 16 UTC +/- 7 ชั่วโมง คาดว่าพี้นที่เสี่ยงภัยเป็นพิเศษได้แก่ประเทศจีน เอเซียใต้ หรือ ประเทศทางอเมริกาใต้


สรุปแล้ว 20-21 เป็นวันที่คาดว่าพลังงานส่วนใหญ่มาถึงโลก คงต้องระวังกันเรื่องแผ่นดินไหว และสภาวะอากาศ ฝน น้ำท่วม กันช่วงนี้



ติดตามสถานการณ์ภัยพิบัติโลกช่วงเดือน กรกฎาคม คศ 2012 - update 20 กรกฎาคม เวลา 1:26 UTC | Truth4Thai.org

 

#-----------------------------<wbr style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">---------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC #
# (RWC Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20719
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Jul 2012, 1234UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 19 Jul 2012 until 21 Jul 2012)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 110 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 100 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jul 2012 10CM FLUX: 098 / AP: 007
COMMENT: NOAA AR 1520 is still producing strong flares as it rotates
over the west limb. An M7.7 flare peaking at 05:58 UT was related to a
fast halo CME (~1400 km/s) with the bulk of the material towards the
west and therefore not expected to arrive to the Earth, even though a
shock can be seen on July 21. The flare, and/or the CME, produced an
increase in the 50 and 100 MeV proton fluxes, they are close to passing
the 10 pfu threshold (the 10 MeV flux is above this threshold since July
17). This AR can produce more activity before it completely disappears
behind the limb. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet and expected to remain
so.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 025, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 18 Jul 2012
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 063
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 110
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 010
AK WINGST : 006
ESTIMATED AP : 005
ESTIMATED ISN : 039, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM RADIO BURST TYPES Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
END
BT<wbr style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); "><wbr style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); "><wbr style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">

 

RADIATION STORM: A low-level radiation storm is underway as solar protons swarm around our planet. Ranked S1 on NOAA space weather scales, the storm poses no serious threat to astronauts or satellites. Nevertheless it is a nuisance. Minor radiation storms can cause occasional reboots of computers onboard spacecraft and add "snow" to spacecraft imaging systems. This SOHO coronagraph image of the sun, taken during the early hours of July 20th, is a good example:​

​

Each of the speckles in the image (a handful are circled) are caused by protons hitting the spacecraft's CCD camera. During minor storms it is possible to see through this kind of snow. During severe storms, such images become practically opaque. ​

The protons were accelerated toward Earth by an M7-class solar flare on July 19th. Although the blast site (sunspot AR1520) was on the farside of the sun, the protons were able to reach Earth anyway, guided toward our planet by backward-spiralling lines of magnetic force.

 

A Taste of Solar Maximum

<table class="table_generic center" style="width: 450px;" summary="media files table" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;">[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VVYb-snvJ8"]Play ScienceCast Video[/ame]</td><td style="text-align: center;">Join Mailing List</td></tr></tbody></table>
July 20, 2012: Forecasters say Solar Max is due in the year 2013. When it arrives, the peak of 11-year sunspot cycle will bring more solar flares, more coronal mass ejections, more geomagnetic storms and more auroras than we have experienced in quite some time.

On the weekend of July 14, 2012, sky watchers around the world got a taste of things to come.

It was mid-Saturday in North America when a coronal mass ejection or "CME" crashed into Earth's magnetic field and triggered the most sustained display of auroras in years. For more than 36 hours, magnetic storms circled Earth's poles. Northern Lights spilled across the Canadian border into the United States as far south as California, Colorado, Kansas, and Arkansas. In the southern hemisphere, skies turned red over Tasmania and New Zealand, while the aurora australis pirouetted around the South Pole.
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VVYb-snvJ8"][/ame] A new ScienceCast video takes you on a trip around the world to witness the geomagnetic storm of July 14-16, 2012. [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VVYb-snvJ8"]Play it[/ame]

The source of the CME was giant sunspot AR1520, a seething nest of tangled magnetism more than 15 times wider than Earth itself. On July 12th, the sunspot's magnetic field erupted, producing an X-class solar flare and hurling a billion tons of electrified plasma toward our planet.



NASA’s twin STEREO probes and the European Space Agency’s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory monitored the CME as it billowed away from the sun. Using those data, analysts at NOAA and NASA successfully predicted the cloud’s arrival time. It would take almost two full days for the CME to cross the 93 million mile void between Earth and sun.



The CME’s impact sharply compressed Earth's magnetosphere, briefly exposing geosynchronous satellites to solar wind plasma. The shaking of Earth's magnetic field caused compass needles to swing--just a little--and prompted electrical currents to flow through the soil at high latitudes. Fortunately, the strike did no harm; satellites survived and power grids stayed online.
An experimental NASA computer model of the incoming CME predicted its arrival at Earth on July 14th. Credit: Goddard Space Weather Lab. animation



Next came the light show. As the CME's wake washed across Earth, the polar regions of our planet lit up like a Christmas tree. Red, green, blue and purple auroras capped both ends of the planet, glowing, dancing, and ultimately spreading to places where auroras are seldom seen.

In Arkansas, for instance, "there was a faint glow off and on for most of the night," reports Brad Emfinger from a little town called Ozark. "Around 3am there was an outburst of red and purple plainly visible to the naked eye." [photo]

In Pawnee Grasslands, Colorado, photographer Robert Arn saw the Northern Lights for the first time ever: "As soon as I stepped out of the car, the sky looked like it was on fire. Then the Moon, Venus and Jupiter rose together in the east. To see the conjunction and the auroras side-by-side was incredible!" [photo]

Meanwhile at the other end of the planet, "auroras were going crazy over the South Pole," reports Robert Schwarz at the Amundsen-Scott south pole research station "We enjoyed the show under crystal clear skies with an air temperature of minus 105 degrees F." [photo]

In Ashland, Wisconsin, on the other hand, John Welling watched the show in his shirt sleeves: "Tonight was absolutely the best with a comfortable temperature of +78 degrees F and Northern Lights dancing overhead. The X-flare definitely lived up to the hype." [photo]

From one end of the planet to the other, spanning more than 90 degrees of combined north-south latitude, 183 degrees of temperature, and 360 degrees of longitude, this was truly a global space weather event.
And it was just a taste of things to come.
Stay tuned to Science@NASA for more news about the sun-Earth connection.

Author: Dr. Tony Phillips| Production editor: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA

​

​

​

​

A Taste of Solar Maximum - NASA Science​

​

 

CORONAL HOLE: A vast dark gap in the sun's atmosphere--a.k.a. a "coronal hole" --is rotating onto the Earthside of the sun. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the emerging structure on July 21st:​

​

Coronal holes are places where the sun's magnetic field opens up and allows the sun's atmosphere to boil away. The escaping gas forms a stream of solar wind. This coronal hole is perfectly positioned near the sun's equator to create a geoeffective stream--in other words, the solar wind stream will hit Earth directly. ETA: July 27 or 28. High latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on those dates.

 

อาจจะเป็นการระเบิดของดวงอาทิตย์ที่มี CME เร็วมาก เมื่อวานก็ได้

 

VERY FAST FARSIDE CME: A coronal mass ejection (CME) blasted away from the sun this morning with 2930 km/s or 6.5 million mph. CMEs moving this fast occur only once every ~5 to 10 years. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the cloud's emergence on July 23rd starting around 0300 UT:
[ame="http://vimeo.com/40636294"]rare speed[/ame]:

​

The source of the CME was sunspot AR1520, which sparked [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VVYb-snvJ8"]many bright auroras[/ame] earlier this montth when it was on the Earthside of the sun. Now, however, the active region is transiting the sun's farside so this blast was not geoeffective. One can only imagine the geomagnetic storms such a fast CME could produce if it were heading our way. Stay tuned for additional analysis.



CME ที่เร็วมากๆๆๆ จากการระเบิดของดวงอาทิตย์ด้านที่ตรงข้ามกับโลก (โชคดีไป) ไม่ค่อยเจอ CME ที่มีความเร็วขนาดนี้ 2930 km/วินาที หรือ 6.5 ล้านไมล์/ชั่วโมง CME ที่เร็วมากขนาดนี้จะเกิดขึ้นหนึ่งใน 5 ถึง 10 ปี เวลาที่เกิด คือ เมื่อวาน 23 กรกฎาคม เวลาประมาณ 10 โมงเช้า

และ CME ตัวนี้เกิดมาจากกลุ่มจุดดับ AR1520 เจ้าจุดดับนี้ทำให้เกิดออโรร่าหลายๆ หนในเดือนนี้ ตอนที่ดวงอาทิตย์หันหน้ามาทางโลกแล้วเกิดการระเบิด ตอนนี้ถึงแม้ว่าเจ้าจุดดับนี้จะหันหน้าไปอีกทางที่ตรงกันข้ามกับโลก มันไม่ได้ทำให้โลกเกิดผลอะไรมาก แต่รูปภาพจะแสดงแค่ตรงที่ CME จะพุ่งมายังโลก (ที่พุ่งไปอีกด้านของดวงอาทิตย์ไม่แสดง) แต่ก็ให้ติดตามการวิเคราะห์ต่อไป


SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids



​

 

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tkKKvlP0as]Farside Solar Flare and Full Halo CME (7/23/2012) - YouTube[/ame]

 

Space weather ปรับสปีดของ CME ใหม่เป็น 3,400 km/s แล้ว 7.6 ล้านไมล์ต่อชั่วโมง 12 ล้านกิโลเมตรต่อชั่วโมง:boo:

VERY FAST FARSIDE CME (UPDATED): On July 23rd, a coronal mass ejection (CME) blasted away from the sun with [ame="http://vimeo.com/40636294"]rare speed[/ame]: 3400 km/s or 7.6 million mph. CMEs moving this fast occur only once every ~5 to 10 years. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the cloud's rapid departure from the sun: ​

​

The source of the CME was sunspot AR1520, which sparked [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VVYb-snvJ8"]many bright auroras[/ame] earlier this month when it was on the Earthside of the sun. Now, however, the active region is transiting the sun's farside so this blast was not geoeffective. One can only imagine the geomagnetic storms such a fast CME could produce if it were heading our way.​

 

น่าสนใจมาก เดี๋ยวมาแปล

<table style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(204, 255, 204); display: table; " border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="margin: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: right; font-size: 10pt; " align="right">July 24, 2012

</td></tr></tbody></table><table style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(204, 255, 204); margin-bottom: 5px; display: table; " border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" height="1166" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="margin: 0px; font-family: 'Times New Roman', Times; background-color: rgb(153, 153, 0); font-size: 18pt; color: rgb(255, 255, 0); text-align: center; " align="center" bgcolor="#999900" width="99%">

Will Something Big​

​

​

Happen On July 25th-26th? ​

</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="1" colspan="2" style="margin: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: left; font-size: 10pt; " align="left">

by Mitch Battros - Earth Changes Media

I must tell you, I am skeptical of specific date predictions. I suppose the most popular date currently is December 21st, 2012. As I have said in every single article I have written, there will not be a specific event on Dec. 21st. This date will be no different than Dec. 20th or Dec. 22nd. It was never meant to be. It is simply a signpost-on-the-road - to be used as a point of reference.
​

​

​

​

Recently, I have been notified by some who study the Mayan calendar, to watch for something significant to occur on July 25th or 26th. Usually, notices like this hit the delete file after a brief glance. On occasion, I might send a reply saying something like: "Okay, if something happens on the date you mention, I will make you a star. However, if nothing happens, I expect you to make a full public apology." Oddly, I never hear from them again.

Having said this, the notices I received have tickled my curiosity. So first, since I am bringing this to the forefront, I will make this pledge.

If anything significant happens on July 25th-26th, I will reduce the price of ECM annual memberships to $25. In addition, I will give away 25 Free memberships on a first come first serve basis.

The following is what is being said by those who believe in the Dreamspell calendar which is somehow connected to the Mayan traditional 'Tzolkin' long-count calendar. There is significant disagreement between those who believe in this new Dreamspell calendar made up by José Argüelles and his wife Lloydine - and the traditional 'Tzolkin' calendar.

Here is what the Argüelles followers say about the next two days:

"July 24th is the last day of the calendar, and July 25th is a day out of time and also a time for celebration. It is New Year's Eve for the Dreamspell. I think it is very important to pay attention to those days and connect with this energy. It's time to move out of pain, suffering, and all of that old third-dimension stuff we don't need any more.
​

​

​

​

This Dreamspell calendar is lined up and starts with the star Sirius rising over Egypt and the Pyramids. Sirius was a very important star for the ancients. The Mayan glyph for July 25th is 'Caban' - the Red Earth. It is the point-of-perfect centeredness in the eternal present from which all alignment and magic manifest. Your center, the Earth center is the secret of gravity's magnetizing force. From the center point within self, you align with this galactic center.
​

​

​

​

The Mayan glyph for July 26th is 'Cauac' - the Blue Resonant Storm and is ruled by the planet Pluto, which is a very powerful planet. It is the initiation by fire, the lightning path, and the arrival of the thunderbeings who bring the final transformation. To the Maya, Cauac represents the storm, the thundercloud full of purifying rain, and the lightning that shatters any false structuring of reality."

It is this last paragraph that grabbed my attention. Words such as blue resonant storm, fire, and lightning could have a scientific relevance. As I have documented, the connection between modern science and ancient text has become more apparent each day. So let's see if something significant happens within the next two days. As for me, I'll be watching the Sun - and perhaps following earth changing events.
​

_______________________​

​

​

What's Happening on the Sun?

It is the Sun's 'farside' which is currently the most active. Sunspot region 1520 is still firing off solar flares and cmes as it rotates around the backside of the Sun. In most every case, solar events which occur on the farside, do not have an impact on Earth (although there are exceptions). Below is the link showing a strong and fast CME (coronal mass ejection).

​

​

​

​

​

​

July 23rd CME Farside Sun Region 1520 - CLICK HERE​

​

​

​

​

​

​

The 'earthside' of the Sun has been generally quiet with small solar events mostly from sunspot region 1529. Perhaps over the next two days we will see a spike in solar activity. If that happens, I will be more than happy to initiate my offer above.​

​

​

​

​

</td></tr></tbody></table><table style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; margin-bottom: 5px; background-color: rgb(204, 255, 204); " bgcolor="#CCFFCC" border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" cols="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="margin: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: rgb(255, 255, 153); font-size: 10pt; background-color: rgb(153, 153, 0); text-align: center; " align="center" bgcolor="#999900" width="99%">Mitch Battros Research of the Sun - Earth Connection and 2012</td><td rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="margin: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(153, 153, 0); text-align: left; " align="left" background="https://imgssl.constantcontact.com/letters/images/1101093164665/top_right.gif" bgcolor="#999900" width="1%">
</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="1" colspan="2" style="margin: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: left; font-size: 10pt; " align="left">

​

Mitch Battros presents fascinating, and sometimes shocking, research from the world's top scientists. After years of dialogue with these experts, Mitch has been accepted into the guarded halls of NASA, NOAA, ESA, Royal Observatory, the US Naval Observatory and other highly esteemed scientific bodies.

​

In addition to the latest research on the Sun's influence on our "weather" - Mitch also presents ground-breaking evidence of how the Sun and other celestial orbs produce 'charged particles' and their impact on humanity.

​

Just as the Sun's solar activity affects the Earth's magnetic field which has a dramatic affect on Earth's "weather" i.e. earthquakes, floods, volcanoes, hurricanes; so does this wave of electrical currents affect the human body's magnetic field. Mitch also reveals a little-known development from modern medicine known as Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS). TMS provides empirical evidence of how magnetic fields can influence human emotions.

​

Solar Cycle 24 has begun - and it has been predicted by NASA, NOAA and ESA to be up to 50% stronger than its 'record breaking' predecessor Cycle 23 which produced the largest solar flare ever recorded. The Sun will reach its 'apex' (maximum) in late 2012 into 2013.

"I believe it will be the magnetic influence produced by the Sun which will usher in what is described by our ancient ancestors as "the transition" bringing the Earth and us to a new state-of-being". (Mitch Battros)
​

</td></tr></tbody></table>