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Life-Threatening Superstorm to Slam West Alaska

by Tim Ballisty, Editorial Meteorologist


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Updated: November 8, 2011 4:25 pm ET​

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Has the potential to produce widespread damage...

Intensify into one of the most severe Bering Sea storms on record...

Current models agree well on the development and track of a Bering Sea superstorm which will cause erosion and major coastal flooding over parts of the west coast (of Alaska)...

Extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm which will be one of the worst on record over the Bering Sea and the west coast of Alaska...

Got your attention?

The National Weather Service in Alaska states that an historic hurricane-force storm system is moving into the Bering Sea on Tuesday. The storm, which is forecast to have sustained winds of 80 mph over an area the size of Colorado, is also predicted to produce storm surge effects on the Alaskan coast 8 to 10 feet above normal water levels. The Alaskan city of Nome is in its path.

Imagery of Storm Moving into Bering Sea


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Superstorm in Action: A satellite loop showing the storm approach and enter the Berinig Sea on Tuesday, November 8, 2011.
Source: National Weather Service, Fairbanks Forecast Office, AK ​

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The storm began its travels earlier this week just east of Japan. During the past 24 to 48 hours, the storm has intensified as it moved northeast toward Alaska and the Bering Sea. The storm is expected to bomb out with its central pressure falling rapidly Tuesday night and into Wednesday. The central pressure could fall to as low as an astounding 940 millibars.

Blizzard conditions will be common across inland western Alaska.

Offshore, waves will reach higher than 40 feet, and dangerous heavy freezing spray will affect the Bering and Chukchi Seas. Waves of 15 to 25 feet are expected to crash along portions of the coastline.

The current lack of sea ice in the Bering Sea will allow this storm to maximize its impact. Ice typically acts as a natural barrier that mitigates the effects of destructive wave action and coastal flooding along the shoreline.

View Latest Alaska Severe Weather Alerts

Latest Alaska Infrared Satellite Imagery


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The latest satellite imagery over Alaska. The deeper the orange colors indicate higher clouds tops and the likelihood of enhanced precipitation. Enlarge and animate

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Per the National Weather Service, this storm could be historic for Alaska and is comparable to the November 11-12, 1974, Bering Sea storm that remains the most severe in Nome in 113 years of record keeping.

Major differences between the 1974 storm and this upcoming storm include the fact that tides were much greater in the 1974 storm.

However, sea ice extent is currently much lower than it was in 1974, thus providing no protection along the coast and greater fetch.

See Special Weather Statement from the NWS

Surge Forecast


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Surge forecast map created by the National Weather Service released on Tuesday morning, November 8, 2011. This shows a pronounced surge (between 4 and 10 feet) affecting the west coast of Alaska from Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. Source: NWS
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Severe beach erosion and major coastal flooding is predicted along the Chukchi Sea coast from Cape Krusenstern Northwest.

The National Weather Service even warns that the village of Kivalina will be highly vulnerable to damage caused by the erosion and flooding. Kivalina is on a barrier island that has been eroding away for decades. Enough sustained and powerful winds from the southwest could truly destroy the village. Other barrier islands vulnerable to the tremendous onshore fetch will likely be lost also.

Meanwhile, storm surge is expected to extensive; ranging bewteen 4 and 10 feet along various parts of the west coast. The city of Nome, Alaska dealt with a 5 foot storm surge during hte 1974 storm. Low-lying areas of the city were inundated. This storm is forecast to produce an EIGHT foot storm surge.

See the latest forecast for Nome

Alaska Map


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<small>View Larger Map</small></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5" valign="top" width="440">

Pan and zoom across the massive state of Alaska. Zoom in close along the west coast and take notice of the many barrier islands.

Life-Threatening Superstorm to Slam West Alaska - weather.com
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<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" valign="top" width="100%">2011-11-14 05:58:04 - Extreme Weather - New Zealand

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</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top"> <table width="100%" align="left" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"> <tbody><tr> <td width="25%">EDIS Code:</td> <td>ST-20111114-33041-NZL</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Date&Time:</td> <td>2011-11-14 05:58:04 [UTC]</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Continent:</td> <td>Australia & New-Zealand</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Country:</td> <td>New Zealand</td> </tr> <tr> <td>State/Prov.:</td> <td>Northland, </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Location:</td> <td>, </td> </tr> <tr> <td>City:</td> <td>Rotorua</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"> Damage level: Moderate (Level 2)

Not confirmed information!
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> <td width="440" align="right"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" valign="top"> Description: </td> </tr><tr> <td colspan="2" valign="top"> Rotorua is being hit by a thunder, lightning and hail as a massive storm hits the region, leading to flooding and power cuts. The storm hit just after 4.30pm and cut power to some areas of the district. Hail was reported in McDowell St in the Springfield suburb of Rotorua with residents reporting that the street "looked just like snow". One resident said it was so bad, it blocked his garage door and he was unable to get in. "I have got sails outside and they are filled up with hail and have just collapsed." He said the rain was coming inside his house and making a "hell of a mess". The sudden heavy rain and hail has brought down slips in the Rotoma area and cut power. There were also reports the strong wind had taken off a roof of a Giltrap Rd building. There were several lightning strikes per minutes. Other areas of the city were also described as looking like it was covered in snow. Another resident said Malfroy Rd, Petrie St and Amun Pl were covered in hail. "There are cars slipping around all over the place. There's bound to be a crash." United Networks spokesman Danny Gough said their staff were flat our dealing with lightning strikes, trees down and a truck has hit a transformer on Fairy Springs Rd. Power has been cut to homes in Springfield Rd and other isolated parts of Rotorua as well as Rotoma, Rotoiti, Rotoehu. There were also powercuts at some retail stores in the central city.
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<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" valign="top" width="100%">2011-11-16 05:58:11 - Tornado - USA

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</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top"> <table width="100%" align="left" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1"> <tbody><tr> <td width="25%">EDIS Code:</td> <td>TO-20111116-33060-USA</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Date&Time:</td> <td>2011-11-16 05:58:11 [UTC]</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Continent:</td> <td>North-America</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Country:</td> <td>USA</td> </tr> <tr> <td>State/Prov.:</td> <td>State of New York, </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Location:</td> <td>Fredonia and Westfield, </td> </tr> <tr> <td>City:</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"> Damage level: Moderate (Level 2)

Not confirmed information!
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> <td width="440" align="right"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2" valign="top"> Description: </td> </tr><tr> <td colspan="2" valign="top"> A team of investigators from the National Weather Service has determined two EF-2 tornadoes touched down in Chautauqua County on Monday. The National Weather Service says the first tornado touched down in Fredonia at 5:10 p.m. The second touched down a short time later in Westfield. They, along with officials from the Chautauqua County Emergency Services, announced their findings at a news conference on Tuesday morning, after surveying the storm damage. In Westfield, parts of barns were completely crushed and debris littered fields. Some metal was even stuck, twisted in tree branches "We're going to wait until the insurance documents it and everything and then probably in a few days we'll start cleaning up," said Dean Mead, whose barn was damaged. And it could take longer than that before homeowners in Westfield know if they're eligible for any state or federal assistance.

In Fredonia, clean-up started right after the tornado passed through. And though there were a handful of instances of trees on garages, most of the damage consisted of limbs and branches down and power lines knocked over. The village crews worked all night to begin the clean-up on those. "I know on one street there were six or seven poles down and within 45 minutes they had power back up and running for the whole village," said Fredonia Mayor Stephen Keefe. In the end neighbors and local leaders say despite the damage, they're just relieved no one was hurt. Once all was said and done the NWS had issued 11 tornado warnings Monday evening. Winds in excess of 100 mph did extensive damage across many parts of western New York. Power lines were downed, trees uprooted and at least one structure (a barn in Westfield) was knocked from its foundation. So far there have been no reports of anyone actually seeing a funnel cloud, but the height of the storm and resulting damage happened after nightfall. Investigators were looking for signs of rotation in damage paths and debris fields, to determine if it was straight-line winds or actual tornados that left thousands without power and damage scattered across a large portion of the area.
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